This dashboard provides daily (economic) sentiment indicators based
on Google searches in Austria. The data for the Google searches is
scraped from Google Trends using the trendecon R-package.
The project builds upon the work of trendEcon. Next to the presentation
of the daily sentiment indices the goal is to evaluate the main
indicator’s (daily economic sentiment index) nowcasting performance and
accuracy in an GDP psequdo out of sample forecasting exercise. To
analyze the indicators performance several models (VAR,ARIMA,OLS) are
being compared.
The indicator for the Perceived Economic Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s worries about the economy. For instance, people might google “economic crisis” (Wirtschaftskrise) to get information.
The indicator for the Perceived Consumption Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s consumption behavior and thus gives indications for the current economic situations.
The indicator for the Perceived Unemployment Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s search behavior regarding their current job situation and thus gives indications for the current unemployment situations.
The indicator for the Perceived Housing Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s search behavior regarding their current job situation and thus gives indications for the current unemployment situations.
For some indicators, such as Cultural Events – which includes demand for restaurants, cinemas, concerts etc. – or Gardening and Home Improvement (aka do-it-yourself articles), there is no preexisting, well-established indicator to compare our search-based indicators with. Nevertheless these indicators appear meaningful, as we are observing substantial changes in searches for these goods and services compared to normal times. These indicators will therefore provide valuable information on whether the economy is going back to normal as lock-down measures are lifted. In the beginning, some people, especially people in risk groups, may still be be reluctant to go, for example, to restaurants or stroll around shopping malls because they are afraid of contracting the virus.
The indicator for the Perceived Corona Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s worries about the current corona situations. For instance, people might google “incidence” (Inzidenz), to get information.
For some indicators, such as Cultural Events – which includes demand for restaurants, cinemas, concerts etc. – or Gardening and Home Improvement (aka do-it-yourself articles), there is no preexisting, well-established indicator to compare our search-based indicators with. Nevertheless these indicators appear meaningful, as we are observing substantial changes in searches for these goods and services compared to normal times. These indicators will therefore provide valuable information on whether the economy is going back to normal as lock-down measures are lifted. In the beginning, some people, especially people in risk groups, may still be be reluctant to go, for example, to restaurants or stroll around shopping malls because they are afraid of contracting the virus.
The indicator for the Perceived Housing Situation includes search terms that reflect people’s search behavior regarding their current job situation and thus gives indications for the current unemployment situations.
Expanding OLS
VAR
ARIMA